Translated from the Diario
Tropical storm Leslie has been affecting the weather in an area about 1500/2000 km west / southwest of the Azores, having been almost stationary since 23 September, when the first communication was made by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the entity responsible for monitoring tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and has already been assigned several classifications by the same center (sub-tropical storm, extra-tropical / post-tropical storm, tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane) .
It should be noted that the NHC only discloses tropical cyclone trajectory forecasts for a maximum of 5 days as it is not possible to predict with acceptable certainty the location and intensity of these systems for longer forecast periods.
In particular, in recent days, the prediction of the location of this depression suggests that it will move east, affecting the Atlantic area south of the Azores. By Thursday the storm is expected to become a hurricane as it moves across warmer waters.
The predictions of the various numerical prediction models have presented quite different solutions in terms of the positioning of the center of the depression. In particular, towards the end of this week, some predictions suggest a location in the Madeira / Canaries area, while others suggest the rapid displacement to the northeast, passing through the area between the Azores and the Iberian Peninsula.
In particular, the most recent prediction of the ECMWF deterministic model predicts a scenario in which depression directly affects Mainland territory on day 14 on Sunday, with a probability of occurrence of less than 10% (ie less than 5 forecasts for a total of 50 forecasts), which corresponds to a scenario with a very low probability.
The IPMA will continue to monitor the evolution of tropical storm Leslie and will update its weather reports, forecasts and warnings, in light of the evolution of forecasts and taking into account the probability of each scenario occurring.