Incidence rates Covid-19

Tobi Hughes·
Madeira News

Thanks to Harald Sommer for this week’s updated chart. A long way to go yet.

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Tobi Hughes

13 Responses

  2. Thanks for the information. Is there a formula to compare these figures against the UK which are based on a 28 day period ?

    1. Difficult to answer this question. What is the purpose to wait 28 days before you get a result? – If you wish to calculate it on that basis you need to add the daily numbers of new cases for the 28 day period. Divide the result by the size of the UK population. Then multiply by 100.000. This gives you the rate per 100.000 over 28 days. Good luck.

  4. @Steve
    Germanys rate of testings is so ridiculously low that the incidence rate is entirely meaningless.
    Testing at a higher rate would let the incidence explode.

  5. “Sill miles to go” because….the datum for comparison is… Germany?

    1. Unfortunately the famous tunnel is still not yet in sight but may be soon if trend continues. For a long time an incidence rate of 50 was the measure in Germany before any easing of the lockdown would be considered. Recently the target has been changed to 35 (in Germany).

      1. I see your point in trying to compare with the German incidence criteria but I think there is a fundamental problem with it. As you say, you are comparing two different realities. There is currently a proper lockdown in Germany and therefore the incidence threshold that the authorities defined is 35. However when the lockdown is eased in Germany it is likely the numbers to go up (even if not much). So does that criteria mean that if two weeks after easing lockdown the 35 figure increases to 40 does that mean a new lockdown starts immediately? I don´t think so. For sure another threshold is defined to decide to go back into lockdown.

        There is currently no lockdown in Madeira and therefore it makes little sense to compare the incidence criteria with the ones from countries which are on lockdown like Germany.

        1. Frankly, I have no idea how to respond to this issue. As there are elections coming up in Germany I don’t know who will eventually “invent” something new. Also there don’t seem to be any fixed rules as to the rate level. Where does the rate as a guideline come from?
          In Germany it was argued that the health authorities can back-track the source of infection if the rate is not higher than 50. But is this true? I must leave the interpretation of the Madeira rates to the individual reader. I promise to continue to compile the weekly chart as long as there is interest.

  6. There is few sense comparing the 7day incidence of Germany, UK or other big countries to Madeira. E.g. Germany has about 400 districts, each with an average of about 200.000 population. The best has an 7day incidence of 7, the worst has and 7day incidence of 286. Madeira would be right in the middle of the district, even if the average is lower.

    I think it would be more sensefull to compare Madeira with Madeira: in November / begin of December Madeira had a 7day incidence of 30-40. This might be a snesefull level to compare. I would think a diagram showing the incidence over the time would be quite helpful here.
    In the UK often an incidence of 14day/100.000 is published, this would be just double of the 7day/100.000 incidence.

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