Incidence Rates

Tobi Hughes·
Madeira News

Thanks to Harald for this week’s numbers, they now include one for local transmissions, and one with the local and imported cases together.

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Tobi Hughes

14 Responses

  1. Do we really have to keep harping on about incidence rates. As long as no one in great numbers are being hospitalised or dying why can’t we all just get on with everyday life.

    1. Totally agree with this comment. But the world has been formatted into segregation country lists based on incidence and now it is difficul to revert back. For instance, Germany has a really low incidence but there are still 50 people dying per day on average which is extremely odd. But hey, who cares about lots of people still dying, the important thing is saying your incidence is low. Just don’t test and a miracle happens.

  2. Have you, Alan and Antonio, noticed the increase in the local rate over the last 3 weeks from 10% to 15% and 18%?

    These increases translate into 50% and 80%, respectively. Nothing to worry about???????

    1. Harald/so if you like maths you surely must know that as the absolute numbers go down then any percentage changes get larger. For instance, you pass from 1 to 2 cases there is an increase of 100%. But if you increase from 100 to 102 cases then the increase is only 2%. So, from an epidemiological point of view is it better to get from 1 to 2 or from 100 to 102? What you are saying is that the hundredish cases is better which is completely non sense.

      The facts are that Madeira is recording on average less than 10/15 local cases per day even when lots of visitors and emmigrants have been arriving in the last weeks. And what was the result of that? A slight increase and expected in incidence with zero people at hospital.

      By the way, did you know that Madeira tests about twice as Germany?

      1. Your statement “completely non sense” is pretty tuff and I may suggest you discuss your issue with your math teacher. – Your constant comparisons to Germany are totally irrelevant as I produce this report for Madeira ONLY, not for Germany.
        Guessing that you will argue further I tell you that I shall not react beyond this point.

        1. So, is my statement that as lower as the absolute numbers go then the higher will be the the percentage variation wrong? You were trying to prove a point by showing percentage variations and I just highlighted that I don´t agree and why not.

          My comparison to Germany is because for a long time your tables showed what was Germany´s criteria in terms of incidence for lifting restrictions, etc.

          1. The issues here are not black and white as some of the respondents make it appear. I run cardiology clinics in the UK. As well as the asymptomatic, the ventilated and the dead there are many in between who, whether hospitalised or not, are getting symptoms and signs related to long covid for many months. Many of these people are under 40y and a significant number under 30y. The have high resting heart rates, dramatic rises in heart rates on minimal exertion and severe limitation of exercise tolerance. Young people who previously undertook marathons, mountain biking and other high intensity sports have ceased all exercise. Over 70% of cases, whether hospitalised or not have an increased risk of serious cardiovascular complications for up to 3 months after testing positive. Even with the advanced state of vaccination in the UK, most adults under 50y have only had one vaccination and that population will not be fully immune until late September. You need 2 weeks post 2nd jab to be immune against serious complications of the Delta variant now ripping through UK, mainland Portugal and taking off in Spain.
            I understand pandemic fatigue but it is extremely important to keep monitoring case results even without pictures of people on ventilators and mortuary black bags. Thanks Harald for continuing to post; the data remains highly relevant to Madeira emerging safely from the pandemic.

  3. Balearic
    Current 5-day Incidence Rate: 104.7
    People Hospitalized: 48
    People in ICU: 12
    Travel Status for Germany: Green

    Madeira
    Current 5-day Incidence Rate: 18
    People Hospitalized: 0
    People in ICU: 0
    Travel Status for Germany: Red

    1. Madeira didn’t end up on Germany’s red list because of the incident, all of Portugal got listen as red because of the delta mutation.
      I double it will stay this way for long

      1. Thanks, we know that is what has been justified by German authorities but I think RKI has some problems with the maths too. When Germany decided to put Portugal as a whole in Red, the proportion of Delta variant in total cases in Madeira was lower than in Germany. Since then, that proportion has always been lower than in Germany. So how can a region with low incidence and with a lower proportion of Delta cases than in Germany become a threat to Germany itself? Bad maths.

        It was the Germany Govt and RKI that said they had a regional approach rather than national approach. That is what is on their website, that is what is in their “Designation of International Risk Areas” document. So why wasn´t Madeira treated differently? The answer is because all this process was political by the fact that Portugal and Madeira were welcoming British travelers and that was against Merkel´s intent to make southern Europe German´s playground this Summer.

  4. Antonio,
    I agree with you:
    1) Germany does not differentiate between mainland Portugal and Madeira
    2) they call all Portugal a „virus variant area“ because of the delta variant, demanding 2 weeks quarantine when coming back despite double-vaccination, but the delta variant in Germany itself is now > 50% and will be the absolutely dominant variant by end of July

    As a German, to me it sounds more like clueless despotism, not like science, what my government is exercising here…

  5. Canary Islands
    Current 5-day Incidence Rate: 97.7
    People Hospitalized: 207
    People in ICU: 33
    Travel Status for Germany: Green

    Madeira
    Current 5-day Incidence Rate: 18
    People Hospitalized: 0
    People in ICU: 0
    Travel Status for Germany: Red

  6. Antonio,
    Need to invite you for a dinner.
    Problem: I live in a cow village (will be there first 3 weeks of August): Calheta region

  7. Portugal (and Madeira) removed from Germany’s red list which only demonstrates how ridiculous this decision was.

    However, Madeira is considered a High Incidence Area. RKI still doesn’t know how to do maths.

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