At the moment this is still looking like a very serious situation and close monitoring will be taking place more regularly as we get closer to Monday.
Marco Silva on MeteoRAM is updating us every few hours on the situation.
Madeira is expected to face a moderate to high risk situation as a result of the rain expected to occur at the beginning of next week. A risk that could even be extreme, if the worst forecasts are confirmed, which at this distance, point to periods of persistent and occasionally strong rain or showers for more than 24 hours, between late Monday morning and early afternoon from Tuesday, and with particular focus on the south coast and in the mountainous regions.
Cautious, Victor Prior, IPMA regional delegate in Madeira, for now only adds that “associated with the frontal depression, characterized by strong instability, centered on the 5th (Monday) between the Azores and Madeira Archipelagos and in slow progression towards north, periods of persistent and occasional heavy rain or showers are forecast for the entire Madeira Archipelago, accompanied by a thunderstorm, especially between the late morning of the 5th (Monday) and the early afternoon of the 6th (Tuesday)”. It draws attention that “the highest values should be registered on the south coast and in the mountainous regions”.
In addition to a lot of rain in perspective, the wind could blow with gusts up to close to 100 km/h.
“Predominant wind from the south or southwest, temporarily moderate to strong (30 to 45 km/h), from the late morning of the 5th (Monday) to the late afternoon of the 7th (Wednesday), with gusts that could reach 80 – 90 km/h in mountainous regions”, he explains.
Bad weather will not only be felt on land and in the air, but also at sea, which may register waves of up to 10 meters in maximum height (5 meters of significant height).
“On the 6th and 7th (Tuesday and Wednesday) – on the south coast southwest waves of 3.5 to 4.5 m (maximum of 5 m) and on the north coast northwest waves of 1.5 to 2.5 m (maximum of 5 m, on the 6th, Tuesday)”, he concludes.