A detailed forecast from Meteored, with a very unsettled period, and dust returning for Christmas day.
The weather in the Madeira archipelago will worsen in the coming days due to the arrival of an isolated depression at altitude (or cold drop), which will bring heavy rain, strong winds and the possibility of thunderstorms.
From this weekend onwards, an abrupt change in the weather is expected in Madeira due to the circulation, close to the archipelago, of an Isolated Upper Level Depression (DINA) or simply an isolated depression at altitude (also known as a cold drop ) which will mainly affect other islands further south – the Canaries .
However, this phenomenon, which will affect the entire archipelago (Madeira, Porto Santo, Desertas and Selvagens), will be characterized by rain, sometimes locally heavy, lower temperatures, intense gusts of wind and the possibility of thunderstorms . Here is the forecast, day by day.
Cooler Saturday, with showers and gusts of up to 75 km/h
Although some showers have already started to fall today (20), atmospheric instability in Madeira will tend to intensify over the next few days. Today – Saturday (21) – will be a day with generally very cloudy skies, with periods of showers, especially between late morning and mid-afternoon .
The wind will blow moderate to strong from the northeast, sometimes with gusts of up to 75 km/h on the western end and up to 65 km/h on the eastern end and mountainous regions of Madeira Island, complicating conditions for outdoor activities in exposed areas. Additionally, a slight cooling of the weather should also be noted. Temperatures will drop between 1 and 2 ºC Celsius compared to yesterday .
On Sunday (22) the Madeira archipelago will continue to be under the influence of cold rain, with irregular showers and sometimes of moderate to heavy intensity, especially on the main island of the archipelago (Madeira) . More intense showers are expected in the early hours of the morning and also in the middle and late afternoon of December 22.
By the end of Sunday (22), the northern slope and part of the mountainous regions of Madeira Island may have accumulated between 30 and 40 mm of precipitation . The trade winds from the north-northeast will continue to blow with strong gusts (up to 75 km/h at the western end) . However, a slight rise in maximum temperatures is expected, which will exceed 20 ºC in the city of Funchal .
Monday with heavy showers, risk of flooding and possibility of thunderstorms
Monday (23) will be the most adverse day of this episode of atmospheric instability led by the cold drop , according to the latest updates from the Meteored reference model . The instability will be widespread across practically all the islands of the archipelago, although with greater prevalence on the main island (Madeira) and in particular on the northern slope, the eastern end and part of the mountainous regions .
According to our maps, the most affected locations on the island will be: São Jorge, Santana , Boaventura and Porto da Cruz (75 to just over 100 mm of accumulated precipitation during the entire episode of instability generated by the cold drop), Machico , Santa Cruz and São Vicente (just over 50 mm) , between 20 and 50 mm in most locations on the island, including the capital city ( Funchal ) . In the locations on the western end, accumulated precipitation of less than 20 mm is expected until the end of the episode .
Although a decrease in wind intensity is expected, gusts of up to 50 km/h will continue to be recorded across almost the entire island , except in the first 12 hours of the day on the western end where gusts of up to 75 km/h are expected .
On Tuesday the cold drop will move away, but the dust will start to ‘invade’ the island slowly
The instability lines associated with the cold drop will begin to lose strength as the hours go by next Tuesday, December 24th and Christmas Eve. In the first half of the day the influence of the cold drop will still be visible due to the high frequency of showers that could cover practically the entire island of Madeira . However, in the second half of the day they will be much more dispersed and weak, appearing only in a few places.
The wind will change direction, blowing from the East, which will cause temperatures to rise . This new configuration will favor an intrusion of dust from the Sahara that will reach the archipelago from mid-afternoon on Tuesday (24), making the sky cloudier and affecting air quality .
The maps reveal a tendency for the concentration of suspended dust to increase , with Christmas Day (next Wednesday, December 25) potentially being marked by this event . In addition, visibility will be somewhat reduced.
Given this meteorological situation, from locally heavy showers, risk of flooding and intense gusts to the possibility of thunderstorms and dust , we advise caution and prudence in areas most exposed to these climatic elements. Keep an eye on Meteored’s daily forecasts and follow any updates and recommendations from IPMA and Civil Protection .