Incidence rate

Tobi Hughes·
Madeira News

Thanks again to Harald Sommer for the numbers this week.

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Tobi Hughes

12 Responses

  1. The incidence rate in Germany is now 83, a jump from the 68 last week. As I have always said, it makes little sense comparing incidences that derive from lockdowns to incidences where most things are still open, and as soon Germany eased the restriction there goes your incidence rate up. This also why I have always said that the incidence rate criteria in Germany (100 or 50 as shown in that spreadsheet) should not be used as a general guide for Madeira.

  2. Germanys incidence rate is politically manipulated. If they want it to come down they test less and if they want it to go up they increase the testing rate. Fake numbers which cannot be compared with Madeira results.

  3. … I agree ,, Daily case numbers are only comparable if daily testing numbers are the same every day ,, and will become irrelevant when vaccines have hopefully protected people against hospitalisation and death …

  4. ==================

    13:00 Portugal, Madeira & Azores are still on the Red list

  5. To the 3 respondents above: I never said that incidence levels of 100, 50, or 35 are relevant to Madeira. Fact is that since 25 Jan 2021 the incidence rate has dropped every week. What should be the target for Madeira? I mentioned that to achieve level 50 less than 20 new cases have to be reported daily. I do not know – who does? – the daily number of tests. – I dispute that the German incidence rates are politically manipulated: Mrs. Merkel is not Mr. Trump and would not even try to influence the RKI re the numbers collected. Do you trust the numbers published on Madeira??? – Granted, eventually the incidence rates will become meaningless because of the vaccination programme. But we’re still far, far, very far away from that point.
    The sad news today is that the Astra Zeneca vaccine has now been stopped in Germany, too.

    1. Portugal is sensibly carrying on with the AstraZeneca vaccine and ignoring the knee-jerk reaction of other EU states.

      1. Congo and Thailand, too. Or has the EU expanded into Africa and Asia already?

    2. “What should be the target for Madeira? ”

      The target for Madeira is dynamic and based on what experience tells about the relationship between incidence, death rate and hospital/ICU beds occupancy. Based on the scenario that Madeira withstood in January we know that if we keep numbers under 100 cases per day, the hospital/ICU beds in the island remain below 30% occupancy and that the level of mortality is such that is “tolerated” by society, ie, numbers of deaths are sufficiently low for society to accept the numbers.

      I think each country will have to define it´s own incidence threshold based on its own experience in dealing with this virus. If this value is 10 in one place and 1000 in another, nothing against it. What I find ridiculous is that some countries, like Germany, UK, etc, are putting countries and regions in a “red list” or “risk list” just because the incidence in those countries is higher than the threshold that Germany and UK defined, not giving importance to things like hospital occupancy rates, death rates, rate of test positivity, etc.

      For instance Madeira has already performed 325,000 tests, that´s 1.25 tests per capita whilst Germany has performed 46 million tests, that´s about 0.5 tests per capita. It becomes obvious Madeira will always find higher incidence than Germany.

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