Incidence rates

Tobi Hughes·
Madeira News

Thanks again to Harald, rate is slightly up. But wifh more and more arrivals that I guess is expected.

Some good news from the UK today, the restrictions could end earlier than the 19th July, and experts believe there is no 3rd wave.

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Tobi Hughes

13 Responses

  1. The current incidence rate is 10. The incidence rate specified above does not make sense because it is based on all cases, not just local. Travellers who test positive upon arrival are very little relevant to the incidence rate in Madeira, they are more relevant to the countries where they got contaminated. Countries like Germany and UK are not including travellera who test positive in their incidence rate calculations.

  2. I agree with the above comment. Have two rates if you like but the best incident rate is that based on local cases!
    I calculated it to be about 10 for the last 7 days

  3. Tobi, there is very little news but a lot of speculation good bad and indifferent. At the moment speculation is about the EUFA final at Wembley, EUFA want special dispensation, no quarantine for 2,500 officials plus hangers on, plus supporters. On my return from Madeira they want me to quarantine for ten days.

  4. George,
    I think you will find that the rules have changed while you have been away. I am assuming you are in Madeira now and have not kept up with the latest UK news.

    1. Terry, No, I’m still in the UK. Changed my flights from July 1 to July 5 after Easyjet cancelled their Thursday flights. Very easy although it had to be done by telephone as it was the third change. I don’t think the rules have changed, I still have to take three tests and quarantine for ten days despite having completed the two vaccinations. Watching Sky News, the Newspaper Review last night, two headlines are optimistic, one pessimistic. No actual news or rules, just the Government floating their bread on the waters, via the media, and then guessing what the electorate are least upset with. The Times reports Hancock saying travellers with the two vaccinations could, might, perhaps, not need to quarantine on their return, towards the end of August. While his Boss, on the same page “warns there were still likely to be delays and hassle for holiday makers.” Mean while a decision is still waiting what to do with EUFA officials and fans if the game goes ahead at Wembley. Meanwhile in Portugal where the Virus is again on the rise, there is talk of the game being held in Oporto. Oh Lord, save us from Politicians.

  6. Reply to the first two contributors: 1) What population number are you using in your calculation? 2) Arriving visitors (The definition of “Travellers” has a special meaning in England) that tested positive are here on the island. Why not count them in? 3) Different countries have different rules.

    1. If a plane arrives from Frankfurt arrives to Madeira with 100 infected passengers, why on Earth would those numbers count for incidence in Madeira if they reflect a problem in Frankfurt, not in Madeira? The regional authorities provide the data specifying if they are local or travelers, so we could make good use of those numbers to calculate the incidence rate. Why is this important? Because for instance this week you are showing an “escalating” situation when reality is that there have been less local transmission than the past week (de-escalating situation).

    2. I used 250000 for population. It does not make much difference to 10/100000 per week if you use 275000.
      The airport picks up incoming people so does not indicate the level of covid in the population of Madeira which is the important number. If cases get through this testing then then might make a difference to the number in several weeks time. Hopefully very few manage to do this. 10 is still a lot less than 50!

  7. This is great work from Harold but as tourist numbers hopefully increase theres a strong likelihood that the incidence rate will increase along with it. Local transmission is the more accurate figure in this case and that is going in a very positive direction at the moment. Lets hope the mainland gets back on top of the situation

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