The ‘Bernard’ depression, the name given by the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) to the depression that at 12 noon today was centered west of the Azores archipelago, will gradually move southeast and in this phase will head towards the Madeira archipelago.
According to a note sent by IPMA, this Saturday, at 6 pm, the depression, “which is associated with a mass of hot, humid and unstable air, will be centered approximately at 34N16W (about 160 km northeast of Funchal), with a pressure of 993 hPa, moving subsequently to the north-northeast, towards the south coast of mainland Portugal from the 22nd, and will gradually progress to the north-northeast along the Iberian Peninsula”.
This evening, the weather is expected to worsen in the Madeiran archipelago, resulting in a significant increase in the wind, which will be from the strong southwest, with gusts of around 100 km/h, and in the mountainous regions, around 120 km /h, gradually rotating northwest from the end of the afternoon.
Precipitation will be persistent and, at times, strong, with greater impact in mountainous regions, on the south coast of the island of Madeira, and on the western part of the north coast, where it may occasionally be accompanied by thunderstorms.
The IPMA predicts an increase in maritime agitation from the afternoon of the 21st and until the end of the 22nd, with waves in the western quadrant measuring 4 to 5 meters, increasing to 5 to 6.5 meters on the north coasts and on the island of Porto Santo .
On Sunday, October 22nd, with the aforementioned depression approaching mainland Portugal, and according to the latest model data, heavy and locally very intense precipitation is expected in the Algarve and Baixo Alentejo from the morning onwards, as well as a increased wind intensity, and conditions favorable to the occurrence of thunderstorms and strong gusts.
With the gradual displacement of the depression to the north-northeast, these meteorological conditions will extend to the remaining Central and South regions, and at the end of the day, eventually to the North region, although with less impact. An increase in sea agitation is also expected on the south coast of the Algarve from the afternoon of the 22nd, with significant southeast waves 3 to 4 meters high, gradually changing to southwest waves.
As reported, due to this situation, orange warnings for gusts, precipitation and sea disturbances were issued for the Madeira archipelago, which will be updated over time, advising “monitoring weather forecasts and taking precautions against vulnerability to the weather.”
“It should also be noted that there is some uncertainty in the positioning of the Bernard depression, which equally translates into the greater or lesser severity of the situation. Given this uncertainty, precipitation warnings were issued conservatively in mainland Portugal, opting to initially by yellow warnings of precipitation for the Central and South regions, and of gusts and sea agitation for the Algarve, which will be updated over time, recommending monitoring weather forecasts and taking precautions in situations of vulnerability to the weather. state of the weather”, says the note.