The amateur weather website ‘Luso Meteo’ published a post this morning that predicts temperatures of 30 degrees in Madeira this weekend and talks about the possibility of reaching the “record” for the highest temperature at this time of year. The text has been shared by many Madeirans on Facebook. Is this analysis correct?
The website and Facebook page ‘Luso Meteo’, created by a “self-taught” person from the north of Portugal who in recent years has spent “many hours on the Internet learning” about meteorology, states that “the weather over the weekend of 9 and 10 November could bring record heat to Madeira” and “will be marked by temperatures that, in some places, could even reach 30ºC, something very unusual for the season”.
This post prompted dozens of comments from Madeirans on Facebook. Some people even questioned the accuracy of the weather forecast, pointing out places on the island of Madeira where the weather is cold, rainy or foggy (Santana, Faial, Porto da Cruz, Machico, Garajau and São Roque). Others pointed to forecasts from other amateur platforms, such as Windguru, which indicate that “the temperature will not exceed 25° in Funchal”.
The Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) is the public entity in Portugal that provides information on meteorology, based on scientific models, which obtains data from a set of stations spread throughout the national territory and from international satellites, prepared by qualified and certified technicians.
The IPMA forecast for this weekend effectively points to high temperatures, which could reach 30 degrees in Lugar de Baixo (Ponta do Sol), 28 degrees in Funchal (Lazareto), São Vicente and Porto Moniz, 27 degrees in Ponta do Pargo, 26 degrees in Lido (Funchal), Câmara de Lobos, Santa Cruz (Airport) and Machico, 25 degrees in Santana and Caniçal, 21 degrees in Santo da Serra, 20 degrees in Bica da Cana and 19 degrees in Pico do Areeiro. In Porto Santo the maximum temperature will be 25 degrees on Saturday and 24 degrees on Sunday.
If the temperature reaches 30 degrees this weekend, will it be a record high? The IPMA delegate in Madeira, Victor Prior, explains that “to be a record, the temperature will have to exceed the 29.9 degrees recorded in November 1999” in Funchal, which is the reference for the region. Although this is a possibility, the expert does not believe that this value will now be reached in the capital of Madeira.
The rise in temperature at this time of year is popularly known as the Summer of Saint Martin. Victor Prior describes this situation in technical terms: “It has to do with the location of the Azores anticyclone, which at this time of year extends from the Azores to Europe and North Africa, and which in its southern branch transports hot and dry air from lower latitudes. The current situation is reinforced by the presence of a depression region to the west of the Canaries.