Incidence Rates

Tobi Hughes·
Madeira News

Thanks once again to Harald Sommer.

Obviously they are only going one way at the moment, but nice to see a lot more recoveries today.

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Tobi Hughes

23 Responses

  1. Recovery means they didn’t die. It does not mean that they do not suffer from Long Covid.

    2. The majority of people who test positive do not go on to become ill – it is difficult to suffer from a post-viral syndrome if you have not been ill! Tobi is correct – in Madeira ‘recovered’ for most means that they no longer test positive rather than that they are recovering from an illness. Still, better than the UK I suppose where no figures are ever given for recovery/discharge!

  2. Why oh why should we expect anything other than doom and gloom from Mr Positivity? Not everyone suffers from Long Covid and many of the recovered, just like many of the new cases are youngsters who didn’t even have any symptoms, weren’t even aware they had it until tested. For goodness sake if you don’t have something good to say then stay quiet. Nostradamus pales into insignificance really!

  3. … Recovery means they didn’t Die ,, but Unfortunately means they may still have to suffer “Long Torture” from Richard’s Ramblings !!! …

  5. Richard’s statement concerning long covid is accurate. It is a documented medical condition that many suffer from. We can’t wish it away. It’s his prerogative if he chooses to see the cup as half empty. No need to disparage him personally.
    The suggestion that someone should be quiet if they don’t have “something good to say” implies that if you don’t agree with me your concerns should not be heard. It’s not about saying something is “good” or “bad”, but rather is the writer making a valid point.
    One could just as easily argue that some contributors to this blog have an more rosy picture than is warranted. I have read posts that imply that we are overreacting to the Covid pandemic, that it’s not that dissimilar than the flu.
    If I only read posts from like minded people I certainly wouldn’t learn very much. Whatever our differing viewpoints we need to remain civil.

    2. See Simon’s reply below – that is entirely acurate. “Long Covid” is a catchy name for post-viral syndrome, a common and well-known condition that can occur after most severe viral illnesses. It is not unique to covid, although some would have you believe so. Perhaps it would be useful to cast one’s mind back to Prof. Whitty’s early statement – which remains accurate but has been subsumed in the blizzard of fear and misinformation in the interim – that most people, if they become symptomatic, will experience a mild, flu-like illness. And that has proven to be the case. That is not to deny that others become seriously ill and can die – some before their time – always devastating for their families as is any death – but it is also true of flu – it remains a killer. What is needed is the application of some commonsense and perspective and less hysteria and fear.

      1. Good post Elizabeth. I’m fed up with the doom and gloom merchants. When I see a particular name before a post I ignore it. Nothing to learn from it.

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  7. Instead of always looking to the dark side, with these doom and gloom boy scouts, look towards the light and be positive. You can live in fear or you can live, and control what you can control. As for the doomers, stay away from the brown acid.

  8. ONS research finds that approx 13% (averaging males and females) of those testing positive have self reported long Covid symptoms. Of these all but a tiny minority recover report being fully recovered after 6 weeks. The tiny minority self report significant symptoms which persist beyond 6 weeks and sometimes for up to 12 months. The researchers report that although long Covid symptoms can be very specific to the Covid 19 virus, the prevalence and effects are similar to those experiencing serious long term effects of acute seasonal influenza. Draw your own conclusions.

  9. The ONS in the UK reported in May that more than 1 million people in the UK who had Covid-19 were suffering Long Covid 12 weeks after. The Reach-2 study, UK government funded, has found that 37.7% of all people who had Covid-19 suffered from one symptom for 12 weeks or more and 14.8% experienced 3 symptoms or more. “The scale of the problem is quite alarming” reported Prof. Kevin McConway. A study in Norway has found that 61% were still experiencing persistent problems at 6 month, including 52% 16-30 year olds.
    My wife is still suffering after 18 months. CT scan of the lungs shows permanent damage. She had no underlying health problems and was not hospitalized when she caught Covid-19. I have young family relations 16-20 age group who caught Covid-19 last December. One has partially regained his sense of smell and taste recently, the other one not at all yet.
    I talk from experience and reality, not glass half full or half empty. i am not living in fear. i enjoy life and take all sensible precautions against catching this virus. Wear a mask and keep social distance. Unfortunately not many people do. The Delta variant is easily caught outside and just from speaking to someone according to recent studies. Just walk around Madeira now and see how many people are wearing a mask.

  10. Richard, your response takes the subject of long Covid out of context e.g. experiencing single or multiple symptoms during and after infection, even for relatively long periods does not constitute a diagnosis of long Covid. With regard to mask wearing outdoors the BMJ as published the following quote. “Given the low risk of transmission outdoors, recommendations or mandates for outdoor masking seem arbitrary, affecting people’s trust and sustained energy to engage in higher yield interventions, such as indoor mask use or staying home if sick”

  11. “The Delta variant is easily caught outside” you say. What “recent studies” are you quoting from?
    Just asking as I’m interested.

  12. Richard,
    I’m sorry to hear about your wife’s struggles. No doubt having a close family member seriously impacted by Covid affects how we view the pandemic. Within my large extended family there have been 3 deaths. A nieces father-in-law, my brothers brother-in-law, my wife’s sister mother-in-law. I knew them all. All were active, two were in their early 60s and still working. One death occurred at the beginning of the pandemic. Another was the result of ignoring all precautions because he felt the virus was no big deal, and the third was exposed while hospitalized for routine medical testing.for a serious health issue. These deaths no doubt impact my perspective and probably make me more cautious than others who have not known people who died from Covid.
    My perspective is also impacred by the fact that I managed a large ICU for many years. One of my unit’s specialties was the care of acute ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) patients. Over 25 years I saw hundreds of people die from respiratory failure. It’s not pretty to watch. I am in regular contact with my former colleagues and I can assure anyone that any and all comparisons to the flu are totally misplaced. It’s like comparing the common cold with severe pneumonia.
    I remain concerned about the course of the pandemic and the possibility of additional variants. I thank God for the vaccines but don’t think we are totally out of the woods just yet. That doesn’t mean I live in fear or that I am not without optimism. It just means I am cautious. I avoid bars but am happy to eat a meal at an outdoor restauraant that’s not overly crowded. I wear a mask when shopping. I frequently spend unmasked ime with friends and family that are vaccinated but would not sit in a movie theater. I don’t wear a mask on my daily walks. I plan on flying to Germany to visit family and friends although I will admit some second thoughts about this trip. Definitely plan spending 6 weeks in Madeira in Feb-March of next year.
    Stay safe.

  13. Dan, we are on the same wavelength.
    KWR. There are several medical articles available regarding the transmission of Covid19 in fine aerosols. Reference for instance:
    Infectious SARS COV-2 emitted in aerosols, by Seth A. Hawkes et.al.
    Infectious SARS COV-2 in exhaled aerosols and efficacy of masks during early mild infection. Oluwasenmi O. Adenaiye et. al.
    Viral load of SARS COV-2 in respiratory aerosols emitted by Covid19 patients while breathing, talking, and singing. Kristen K. Coleman et. al.
    There are many other studies.
    We also know that the viral load of the Delta variant is about 1000 time more than the original virus. Q.E.D.
    But unfortunately there are many people that don’t, or don’t want to understand this.

    1. I’m sure those at the BMJ will be contacting you to ask where they have gone wrong with their published advice.
      As regards your comment that people don’t understand or don’t want to, I prefer to take my advice from professional medics and not amateur ones on a blog.

  14. Richard, please take this in the humourouscspirit in which it is intended but I think you are talking aerosols.

  15. KWR. I agree with you. I don’t believe what people say on blogs. That’s why I referred you, at your request, to professional research papers and UK government sponsored research into the transmission of Covid 19.

    Simon. Yes I am talking aerosols. When people breath, talk, sing the air comes out as an aerosol carrying the viruses with it. They are propelled different distances depending on whether one is simply breathing, or talking (softly or loudly) or singing or panting whilst running. If the infected person has the Delta variant then many many more virus particles are expelled by the infected person.

  16. If you don’t believe in what people write on blogs and I don’t believe in what people write on Blogs and you can choose which experts opinion suits your narrative, why are we bothering ?

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